Is Phoenix a Buyer's or Seller's Market?

The Terrain: What the Data Actually Shows in Early 2026

The Cromford Market Index is the most reliable instrument for measuring buyer versus seller power in Greater Phoenix. It tracks supply and demand in real time and assigns a number. Above 110 signals a seller's market. Below 90 signals a buyer's market. As of early 2026, the CMI sits near 80 -- Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with the Cromford Report, has described this as "the best buyer opportunity we've seen in years."

The ARMLS January 2026 report places active listings at 24,358 homes across Greater Phoenix, up 9.63% year over year. The median sale price came in at $444,740, and Redfin data for the city of Phoenix specifically puts the median at $450,000 -- a 2.2% decline from January 2025. Homes are averaging 72 days on the market, up from 66 days the prior year. The sale-to-list price ratio sits at 96.92%, meaning the average seller is accepting about 3% below their asking price.

One number cuts against the buyer-market narrative and deserves attention: under-contract activity jumped 36.76% from December to January, landing at 7,478 pending sales. That is 10.28% above January 2025. Buyers who spent the holiday season on the sidelines have returned. This is a leading indicator -- closed sales in February and March will reflect that acceleration. The terrain is buyer-friendly. It is also changing.

The Weather: What Buyers and Sellers Are Actually Feeling Right Now

Buyers in Phoenix right now occupy an uncomfortable position: they know they have leverage, but they are not sure how long it lasts. Rate fatigue is real. After watching mortgage rates spike past 7% in 2023 and hold in the mid-to-high 6% range through most of 2025, rates have settled into the low-to-mid 6% range. That is not the 3% era, and it never will be again. But as Tamboer has pointed out, stability in rates matters more than where rates land. The market moved when rates stopped swinging -- not when they hit a magic number.

Sellers, especially in the West Valley's mid-price range, are in a different kind of discomfort. They watched their neighbors' homes sit for 60, 75, even 90 days. They have been counseled to reduce, to offer buydowns, to cover closing costs. The frustration is understandable. The data is not. What sellers are experiencing is not a broken market -- it is a market recalibrating to purchasing power that got compressed by two years of rates near 7%. The buyers are there. They are just doing math they have never had to do before.

The honest assessment is this: both groups are making decisions with incomplete information, and both would benefit from reading the same set of numbers rather than reacting to the loudest headline.

West Valley Submarket Breakdown: Not One Market, Several

The Greater Phoenix CMI of 80 is a metro-wide average. It smooths out real variation that matters significantly if you are buying or selling in specific West Valley cities. Here is where the submarkets actually stand:

The Cromford data is direct: Peoria recently shifted into a balanced market, joining Glendale, Avondale, and Laveen. El Mirage is technically a small seller's market. Most other West Valley cities remain buyer markets, but the trajectory is consistent -- the CMI is rising across the board. The question is not whether the window is open. It is how wide, and for how long.

The Concession Landscape: What Buyers Are Actually Winning at the Table

The concession data in this market is historically notable. Tamboer reported at the Phoenix Realtors 2026 forecast event that more than half of all homes closed in Maricopa County included a seller concession -- and in the $200,000-$600,000 range, that figure reached nearly 70%. That is the highest concession rate in at least 25 years.

Concessions in this market typically take three forms: closing cost credits, which reduce the buyer's out-of-pocket cash at close; mortgage rate buydowns, where the seller pre-pays points to lower the buyer's interest rate for the first year or two; and repair credits, which transfer the cost of deferred maintenance from seller to buyer in a negotiated dollar amount rather than as a repair obligation. In a $450,000 transaction, a 2% concession translates to $9,000. That is material.

Tamboer's assessment is worth noting directly: these concessions will be the first thing sellers pull back when buyer demand recovers. The acceleration in under-contract activity through January 2026 suggests that recovery is already beginning. Buyers who use the current environment to negotiate aggressively on concessions are capturing real value. Buyers who wait for "a better time" may find the better time is already behind them.

How Long Does the Buyer's Window Stay Open?

The CMI entered 2026 at approximately 80. It was rising through December and January. Tamboer's commentary at the time was specific: Greater Phoenix is "pulling out of a buyer's market and edging toward a balanced state." A seller's market is not on the near-term horizon -- she has been consistent on that point. But balanced is not the same as buyer-favorable. Balanced means sellers get to stop making concessions. It means days on market compresses. It means the 63% price reduction rate retreats.

The structural argument for Phoenix long-term is unchanged. The metro is adding semiconductor manufacturing, healthcare infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing employment at a rate that supports consistent population inflow. That demand does not evaporate -- it defers and then resurfaces. Home prices peaked at approximately $480,000 in May 2022 and have settled around $444,000 to $450,000 -- a controlled 7% correction, not a collapse. Mortgage rates in the low-to-mid 6% range have dropped payments meaningfully from their 2023 peaks. For every 1% decline in rates, principal and interest payments decrease by roughly 10% on the same purchase price.

The data does not suggest a dramatic shift is imminent. It does suggest the current buyer-friendly environment has a measurable expiration date -- and the Spring 2026 buying season is likely when that clock accelerates.

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