Is Now a Good Time to Buy a House in Phoenix?

The Terrain: What the Phoenix Market Data Shows Entering 2026

Greater Phoenix is pulling out of a buyer's market and edging toward balanced conditions -- but it has not yet arrived there, and a seller's market is not on the near-term horizon. That assessment comes directly from Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst with the Cromford Report, whose January 2026 commentary noted that while the Cromford Market Index is trending upward, the transition is uneven and price appreciation has not yet followed the shift in activity.

The rate environment is a material factor. Most of 2025 operated with mortgage rates in the high-6% to low-7% range. Entering 2026, rates settled into the high-5% to low-6% range. On a $480,000 purchase with 10% down, that improvement translates to roughly $200-$250 per month in reduced payment -- approximately $2,400 to $3,000 per year in cash flow, compounded over a 30-year hold.

Active listings in the West Valley submarkets most relevant to buyers in the $420,000 to $600,000 range -- Peoria, Goodyear, and Surprise -- are elevated relative to historical norms. Peoria recently shifted toward balanced market status. Goodyear and Surprise remain technically in buyer's market territory, with days on market averaging 75 and 80 days respectively through late 2025 and seller concessions still widely available.

The Weather: The Three Positions Buyers Are In Right Now

Anyone searching "is now a good time to buy a house in Phoenix" is in one of three places. Understanding which one applies affects how to read the rest of this analysis.

Position 1: Ready to buy, waiting for certainty

This buyer is financially qualified, has a clear timeline, and is watching the market waiting for a signal that conditions have peaked in their favor. The honest assessment: the signal they are waiting for has already appeared in the data. More than 22,000 homes for sale. Seller concessions on 56% of closings. Monthly payments 10-12% lower than a year ago. Homes sitting an average of 72-80 days in the primary West Valley markets. Tina Tamboer addressed this buyer directly at the 2026 Phoenix Realtors forecast event: "By the time you've hit the bottom of prices, it's already gone. The buyers who recognize that usually win."

Position 2: Not yet financially ready, trying to time the market

This buyer should not be in the market yet, and no market condition changes that. A purchase made before the financial position is solid -- adequate down payment, stable income, reserve funds for post-close expenses, debt-to-income within healthy range -- is a risk that favorable market conditions do not neutralize. Good market timing cannot compensate for poor financial positioning.

Position 3: On the fence due to fear of buying at the wrong time

This buyer has the means but is hesitating because the 2021-2022 experience is still fresh -- bidding wars, waived inspections, homes that subsequently declined in value. That fear is rational. It is also based on conditions that no longer exist. The current market allows contingencies, supports concession requests, and gives buyers 30 to 60 days to make an informed decision. A CMI above 200, which produced those conditions, is not present anywhere in Greater Phoenix right now.

What the Cromford Report Is Actually Saying About 2026

The Cromford Report's January 2026 commentary contains several conclusions worth understanding precisely.

First: Greater Phoenix is still in a buyer's market overall, but central and established cities are becoming the first to shift back toward seller conditions. Buyer's market conditions are not permanent -- they erode from the inside out, with the most desirable areas moving first.

Second: Price is the last measure to move when a market shifts, and it can take three to six months to emerge in the data. The CMI is improving now. Price data will follow. Buyers who wait for price confirmation are likely to act after the negotiating window has already closed.

Third: Tamboer's specific observation on rate psychology: "It's not falling rates that matter, it's stable rates. People move when they feel like the rate they're getting today will still be there tomorrow." The rate environment entering 2026 -- stable in the high-5% to low-6% range -- has crossed that psychological threshold for a growing share of buyers. That growing demand drives the CMI higher and compresses the buyer advantage window.

The Pivot: What This Means If You Are Buying in the West Valley

Peoria has already transitioned to balanced. The leverage window is narrower than six months ago. Move-in-ready homes in established northern corridors are competing again. The opportunity is to execute cleanly at market price with a concession request on properties with extended market exposure -- not to hold out for a large discount.

Goodyear remains in buyer's market territory with closed sales up 27.2% year-over-year through late 2025 and a median price around $475,000. Inventory is still elevated at 4.1 months of supply, and the leverage window remains open. New construction in the area adds competitive pressure that keeps resale sellers realistic.

Surprise has the longest average days on market of the three (approximately 80 days) and the lowest median price (approximately $430,000). Sellers in Surprise are the most flexible. A buyer with a clean offer and a reasonable concession request is operating in the most negotiable of the three West Valley markets. Continued infrastructure investment and proximity to employment corridors support long-term value stability.

The scenario that would change this analysis: a sharp drop in mortgage rates that brings a wave of sidelined buyers back simultaneously. When that has happened before in Phoenix, the inventory that currently sits above 22,000 homes compresses quickly, days on market contracts, and the concession window closes. Even a move from 6.2% to 5.7% can trigger a demand surge. Buyers who are ready should not outsource their decision to that possibility.

The Case Against Buying Right Now -- And Why It Has Limits

A complete analysis requires stating the honest counterargument. There are legitimate reasons a qualified buyer might delay.

If personal financial circumstances are unsettled -- job instability, near-term relocation probability, below-target down payment, or insufficient reserves for post-close costs -- no market condition justifies proceeding.

If the target submarket has elevated new construction competition with builder rate buydowns in the 3.99% to 4.99% range, a resale purchase without a comparable financing advantage may not compete well in the near term.

And if the household's decision horizon is under three years, transaction costs of 8-10% across both sides of the trade require meaningful appreciation to break even. In a flat-to-modest appreciation environment, a sub-three-year hold is mathematically challenged regardless of market conditions.

Outside of those specific circumstances, the arguments for waiting are mostly speculative -- predictions about where prices might go, where rates might fall, or what conditions might improve. The data that exists today, rather than the data being predicted, favors buyers who are financially ready and have a minimum five-year timeline.